Capitas News Brief
Eurozone turbulence spooks markets
Eurozone problems are back with a vengeance and the markets have been spooked. Rising support for the antiausterity parties in France and Greece started it. They want to renegotiate the current EU treaty to allow a bit more fiscal freedom and slower debt repayments. And now, for the first time, there is serious talk among central bankers that Greece might leave the euro. Meanwhile, the rescue of one of Spain’s biggest banks caused yet more turbulence…
- Date: 14 May 2012
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Capitas News Brief
Economic headwinds threaten the buds of recovery
The gusts are particularly strong in the Eurozone. In France, they were enough to topple President Sarkozy while in Greece they’ve prevented a new government being formed. In the UK, the cool climate is holding back the manufacturing and services sectors and causing house prices to fall again. And all this is before many of the cold, hard austerity measures have come through the garden gates. The worry is that severe and synchronised pruning across…
- Date: 8 May 2012
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Capitas News Brief
UK economy shrinks quarter on quarter
A contraction of 0.2% q/q in Q1 puts the UK back in recession. But first estimates are often revised, and it’s where we go from here that matters now. Sadly, there are few hopes of a rapid pick up in growth on the horizon. Europe is struggling on but Spain’s fragile banking system is adding to tensions. Meanwhile the US recovery looks like it might be more sluggish than hoped. Inflation and unemployment are disappointingly stubborn and the housing…
- Date: 30 Apr 2012
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Capitas News Brief
Global growth re-forcasted upwards for 2012
Economic conditions across the globe are ‘somewhat improved’ according to the IMF, which edged up its global growth forecast for this year from 3.3% to 3.5%. It makes a change to have some good news, but of course there are risks – unsurprisingly mainly from the Eurozone. The IMF is worried that low growth and a need to boost capital will cause banks to increase their pace of deleveraging. This would send another chill through the financial…
- Date: 23 Apr 2012
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Capitas News Brief
OBR & OECD blow hot and cold
Like the spring weather, the economic climate has been blowing hot and cold. This makes understanding what’s going on now, never mind forecasting, a difficult task. The latest to offer their outlook is the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which estimates the UK fell back into recession in Q1. This differs from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and many other forecasters, including ourselves, who believe the…
- Date: 2 Apr 2012
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Capitas News Brief
UK budget - no givaways and no tightening
The UK Budget wasn’t very exciting from an economic perspective. The Chancellor’s statement: “There will be no deficit funded giveaways…nor do we need to tighten further.” translates into: “tight fiscal policy and ultra-loose monetary policy will remain the central plan for economic recovery”. However, there has been concern that this plan might not provide enough growth. In an attempt to allay these fears, Chancellor Osborne took the…
- Date: 26 Mar 2012
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Capitas News Brief
Budget forecast ... no change to Plan A
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, is getting his Budget ready. Yet lobbyists looking for some pennies for their favourite cause shouldn’t hold their breath. Despite disappointing news on UK unemployment, Mr Osborne is likely to stick to plan A, especially as Fitch joined Moody’s rating agency in putting the UK’s AAA credit rating on negative watch. But continuing signs of improvement in the US are sending out positive signals…
- Date: 19 Mar 2012
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Capitas News Brief
Past week sees much fluctuation
Like the curate's egg it has been excellent in parts. There was some good economic news last week, but most of it had a bad bit in there somewhere. In the US, economic growth was revised up and confidence improved, but the Chairman of the Fed is still very cautious. In the UK, manufacturing and housing looked better, but are not expected to for very long. In Europe, another round of lending to banks by the European Central Bank (ECB) has calmed nerves…
- Date: 5 Mar 2012
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Capitas News Brief
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