“Global growth remains strong.” That was key judgement number one underpinning the Bank of England’s forecast in the most recent Inflation Report. The Eurozone has been at the heart of the improvement to the global economy over the past 12 months and, in turn, that’s been supportive to the UK. Can it all continue? Very...Read More
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has taken some flak for talking about interest rate rises in the past, but not delivering. That ended last week when the MPC’s raised Bank Rate. Now to see how the economy responds. Take a hike. The Bank of England delivered its first rate hike for 10 years, raising...Read More
It wasn’t blockbuster but GDP growth was slightly better than expected last quarter, lending a little support to members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee minded to raise rates this week. But will it be enough to get a rate hike over the line? We’ll find out lunchtime on Thursday. Slow growth. The...Read More
It’s a familiar narrative for the UK. Strong job growth but signs of a weakening consumer on the back of paltry income growth squeezed by higher inflation. Yet markets are convinced the Bank of England is raising rates on 2 November. The latest data suggests the decision will likely be more finely balanced for policy-makers....Read More
With unemployment at a 40-year low, wages should be rising at roughly twice their current pace. That they are not reflects rising supply, a shift to self-employment, less job switching than usual and, above all, stagnant productivity. It can also stump central banks used to the conventional relationship between work and pay. Jobs for...Read More
Often left in the shadow of a resurgent service sector, finally it’s the manufacturers’ time to step into the sunshine. Revving up. British industry made a good start to Q3 as output rose by 0.2% in July. Manufacturers shrugged off higher import prices and expanded their production by 0.5%. The new car market might...Read More
How to stop worrying and learn to love the economy. Beneath the headlines, last week’s data depict a reasonably sunny economic landscape across the Eurozone, the US and, even the UK. Hope. UK manufacturers are increasingly upbeat. The PMI manufacturing survey rose again in August to 56.9 up from 55.3 in July, the second highest...Read More
Confirmation, if one was needed, of a slowdown in the UK economy in the first half of 2017. Faster price rises have slowed consumer spending to a sloth-like pace. It’s rebalancing Jim (of sorts), but not as we wanted. Fragile. Q2 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3%, meaning the economy is now 1.7% larger...Read More
The financial crisis may be ten year’s old, yet many of the problem it exacerbated are even older. Lost. Last week marked the tenth anniversary of what is widely considered to be the beginning of the financial crisis. It was so long ago the first iPhone hadn’t even been released in the UK (it...Read More
The summer’s weather has been, by and large, a mixture of sunshine and showers. The economic weather has been similar, with the number of ‘positive’ economic results generally matching the number of ‘negative’ ones. In this climate it’s often best to wait and see, which is exctly what the MPC opted to do last week....Read More
