Does June’s unexpected fall in the rate of inflation herald the start of a retreat? It seems unlikely. The fall in sterling that has helped push inflation higher is still filtering through into consumer prices. And even at the lower rate inflation remains uncomfortably above wage growth. That’s a considerable headwind for the economy.   Pause...Read More

Despite yet another strong set of job numbers, there are still no signs of life in the wage growth figures. In response, consumers are saving less and borrowing more. That’s not a sustainable solution.   The 1975. Derby County were champions of England, Bay City Rollers were number one in the charts, Fawlty Towers was about...Read More

Hope fades that the UK economy managed to step up a gear in Q2. Most estimates now suggest quarterly UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to June, barely an improvement on Q1’s disappointing 0.2%.  Soft. First, the good news. Manufacturing output was 0.4% higher in May compared to the same month in...Read More

The UK’s Propensity to borrow too much and save too little has echoes of the recent past.  Yet investment isup and there’s little sign of imminent danger.  Still, the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report worries the pasy may be ahead of us. Weak and Wobbly.  As we approach the tenth anniversary of the global...Read More

“Give me a one-handed economist,” pleaded President Harry Truman, “all my economists say, ‘on the one hand, but on the other’.” On the one hand. Last week two Monetary Policy Committee members explained the background to the previous week’s 5-3 vote to keep Bank Rate on hold. Governor Mark Carney was emphatic that, “now is...Read More

Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted last week to raise Bank Rate to 0.5%.  This is a surprise to say the least as inflation is above target at 2.9%, and heading higher. Yet while employment continues to rise, wage growth is slowing, consumers are under pressure and there is enough uncertainty around to...Read More

The clear winner of last week’s election was YouGov, the polling company that got the result just about right. For the rest of us, uncertainty looms. While it’s commonplace to say uncertainty is bad for the economy – and it is – we can read too much into the short-term impact of elections. The medium-term...Read More

Business surveys paint a rosy picture of Britain’s economy.    Growth looks healthy.    While still-strong job growth is supporting part of the growth in consumers’ spending, the balance is down to increased borrowing.   That can’t go on forever.    Will investment and exports fill that gap and keep growth on course? That’s the question for the rest...Read More

The UK economy grew by just 0.2% between January and March, a sharp slowdown from the 0.7% recorded in the final quarter of 2016. The sterling-induced rise in inflation is biting. With prices rising faster than pay, we’re tightening our belts on items of spending that are discretionary: retail, travel and leisure. Expect more of...Read More

We all know that budget restrictions affect the planning decisions a school, university or college makes. We also know you have to constantly look at areas that need investment to improve your facilities and give stakeholders and students alike the equipment and technology their work demands. But how can you achieve this on a restricted...Read More