Over the last week the government’s working majority was reduced from plus 1 to minus 45. There is still no clarity on the Brexit outcome or the timing of a general election. All of this against the backdrop of a global manufacturing slow down – the UK, Germany, the USA and China have all recorded...Read More

All eyes were on political theatre in Britain last week. No-deal Brexit looks more likely. And with it some economic disruption – how much is unknown. The global economic outlook is not promising: the US and China are still locked in the trade war and the EU economy is fighting to stave off a recession....Read More

The latest slew of economic data will leave many wishing that government statisticians had taken a longer summer holiday.  Faced with a slowdown in world trade, the German economy experienced a mild contraction last quarter, while prospects for the UK and US look ever more reliant on consumers. Join the (laggards) club. The German economy...Read More

Will it? Won’t it? On Friday we learned that, after delivering a strong first quarter performance, UK GDP contracted by 0.2% in the three months to June.  This marks the first outright decline in economic activity since 2012 and puts the UK uncomfortably close to ‘technical recession’ territory just as global growth is faltering. The hangover.  After...Read More

The BoE’s latest Inflation Report downgraded its growth forecasts but continues to predict “gradual” UK rate hikes assuming a smooth Brexit. In contrast, the Federal Reserve lowered the funds rate 0.25% to 2.25%, its first reduction since 2008. US president Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff increase on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports and...Read More

The election of Boris Johnson as the new Tory leader and Prime Minister saw a sharp pivot towards a pro-Brexit cabinet. Mr Johnson also teased with a slightly more cavalier attitude towards the fiscal purse. Meanwhile, a dovish speech from ECB president Draghi clearly signalled further easing measures soon, probably in September.     Whatever it...Read More

Following a path laid by the US Federal Reserve, who recently adopted a more neutral position towards monetary policy, the Bank of England’s February Inflation report clearly signalled no urgency to raise rates. The 2019 growth forecast was cut sharply. The main culprits were mounting concerns about Brexit plus the wider global outlook. Dialling back. The...Read More

Another strong US employment report and improved manufacturing sentiment contrasts with continued lacklustre  Euro area growth and a downbeat Chinese PMI survey, highlighting diverging trends in the global economy. Stockpiling. UK manufacturers ramped up their preparations for Brexit with stockpiles rising at the fastest rate in the manufacturing PMI’s 27yr history, on mounting fears over potential...Read More

Following the recent Grieve amendment, the chances of Parliament passing PM Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow look very slim. A rejection would force Mrs May to unveil a Plan B next Monday. An array of outcomes is possible with an increasing chance of Article 50 being extended. It’s not always about the weather. UK GDP growth eased...Read More

UK workers received a Christmas bonus with the highest wage growth for a decade reported last week. The labour market is yet again the star performer in an economy that is otherwise losing a little momentum. Jobs for (more than) all. Recording the highest employment of 75.7%, a low-lying unemployment rate of 4.1% and an average weekly...Read More