Following a path laid by the US Federal Reserve, who recently adopted a more neutral position towards monetary policy, the Bank of England’s February Inflation report clearly signalled no urgency to raise rates. The 2019 growth forecast was cut sharply. The main culprits were mounting concerns about Brexit plus the wider global outlook. Dialling back. The...Read More
Another strong US employment report and improved manufacturing sentiment contrasts with continued lacklustre Euro area growth and a downbeat Chinese PMI survey, highlighting diverging trends in the global economy. Stockpiling. UK manufacturers ramped up their preparations for Brexit with stockpiles rising at the fastest rate in the manufacturing PMI’s 27yr history, on mounting fears over potential...Read More
Following the recent Grieve amendment, the chances of Parliament passing PM Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow look very slim. A rejection would force Mrs May to unveil a Plan B next Monday. An array of outcomes is possible with an increasing chance of Article 50 being extended. It’s not always about the weather. UK GDP growth eased...Read More
UK workers received a Christmas bonus with the highest wage growth for a decade reported last week. The labour market is yet again the star performer in an economy that is otherwise losing a little momentum. Jobs for (more than) all. Recording the highest employment of 75.7%, a low-lying unemployment rate of 4.1% and an average weekly...Read More
Last week the focus was on the Bank of England’s no-deal Brexit scenarios. This week it will be Parliament in the lime-light. Entrenched. The BoE’s Brexit scenarios have been viewed by some as political fear-mongering. Carney’s testimony to the Treasury Select Committee aimed to dispel the notion, stressing that Brexit scenarios are not the most likely comes....Read More
The UK Treasury painted a downbeat picture for the UK economy in the event of a no-Brexit deal but was surpassed by an even more pessimistic prognosis from the Bank of England. Still, all major UK banks passed the latest annual stress tests assuming a worst case scenario, highlighting significantly enhanced capital positions. Well, you did...Read More
The publication of a draft EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement puts down on paper the debates of the last 18 months. Its progress is far from assured, but we were also given a glimpse of what the future might look like from the accompanying political declaration. Here’s our take on the key points along with the latest...Read More
UK GDP growth picked up in Q3 but this bounce is likely to be fleeting, judging from latest downbeat business surveys. Rebound. UK GDP growth bounced back from a weak first half of 2018 to a strong 0.6% expansion in Q3. Most parts of the economy contributed with growth from services, construction and manufacturing....Read More
The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement was rubber stamped by the EU 27 leaders on Sunday after 20 months of negotiation. Yet the agreement might be entering the most difficult phase of its life as it’s unclear how the legislation will get through Parliament with so many MPs saying they’ll vote against it. Prime Minister Theresa May...Read More
The Bank of England’s latest forecasts show inflation staying above the 2% target, despite rising UK rate expectations. Prices should get a further boost from the looser fiscal policy announced in the Budget. But, as ever, all those forecasts hinge on a smooth Brexit. Warming up. The MPC didn’t raise rates last week, but it...Read More
