The Chancellor opted not to make any changes to tax or spending policy at last week’s Spring Statement, so instead the focus was firmly on the economic assumptions that underpin the public finances. Low key. The Treasury had promised that the inaugural Spring Statement would not be a “fiscal event”. It was not. The Chancellor...Read More

President Trump imposes tariffs to protect heavy industry whilst a new group of countries slashes barriers. Gloves off. President Trump threw down a gauntlet last week by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from all countries other than Canada and Mexico. Responses from China and the EU seem inevitable, first to combat damage to...Read More

Last week’s snow induced disruption will have heaped pressure on sectors like retail, leisure and construction. Firms will have to fight hard amid cancellations to manage cash flow and clear backlogs. It might even knock a tenth of a percent or two off Q1 GDP growth. But it is consumers’ attitudes to borrowing which is...Read More

One swallow a summer does not make, but two swallows? Probably still not enough for a turning point, however much we’d like the UK to crack its productivity problem.   More for less. Here’s a cause for celebration. The UK has notched up two quarters on the spin of decent productivity growth. Output per hour...Read More

Inflation is pushing UK consumers to take it easy at the shops meaning they’re no longer leading the charge on growth.  Meanwhile new technology is shaking up the long established order in world oil markets. Feel the burn.  Retail sales disappointed last month, rising just 0.1% from December. And the underlying pattern continues to point...Read More

While two of the SpaceX rocket boosters landed gently back on terra firma it was a much more turbulent period in the markets. US equities had their worst week in two years and volatility woke from its slumber. The Bank of England also gave the markets a little shake, indicating a rate hike in May...Read More

Economic news from the Eurozone and the US was generally very good last week.  As a result, Bond yields are pushing higher.  That’s good news for people worrying about the possibility of more years of slow growth and low interest rates, sometimes called secular stagnation. It’s also a relief to the many firms grappling with...Read More

Good growth from around the world supports the celebratory tone being struck by leaders in Davos. Optimistic. The World Economic Forum meetings in Davos got off to a flying start with the IMF declaring world growth last year was the best for five years. Even better, it is set to be stronger this year and...Read More

The pre-Christmas shopping rush seems to have conincided with inflation’s peak. Consumers and retailers alike will be hoping for an easier ride this year. Cooling. Inflation looks to have passed its peak. Consumer prices rose by 3.0% in the year to December, down from 3.1% in November. Much of last year’s elevated inflation was due...Read More

A New Year, so an opportune time to do a bit of a stocktake. In this extended brief, we take a look back at 2017 and ahead to 2018. Growth and Labour Market Downslope. How does the UK economy’s performance in 2017 stack-up?  We won’t know definitively for a few weeks, but it looks as...Read More